Cheltenham Trends analyst Matt Tombs is back with his fourth article of 2025, which examines the record of different owners at the Festival.
Every year there is a lot of focus on how the mega-yards will target certain races and the type of horses they do well (or badly) with in a specific Festival race.
There is generally much less chat about the mega-owners, even though some of them have a real modus operandi, both in terms of the type of horses they buy and the way they campaign them.
I’ve therefore looked at the record of both the established mega-owners who have had lots of Festival winners and the newer owners who have lots of good horses – to see what we can learn from the way they campaign their horses. (There is always an element of softness about ownership data where horses are owned in e.g. partnerships but I don’t think that alters any of the conclusions you’d draw from the stats.)
The obvious place to start is with JP McManus who, depending on how you calculate it, has had 77 Festival winners, stretching back to 1982. 48 of those have come at the last 12 Festivals.
McManus is synonymous with handicap plots and 31 of his Festival winners have come in handicaps. That’s 40% and so slightly above the proportion of Festival races that were handicaps – which has changed over the years but has typically been about a third. That said 40% is not that high. 42% of Gordon Elliott’s winners have been in handicaps as, off much smaller numbers, have 70% of Dan Skelton’s.
Unlike some trainers who have targeted specific handicaps, (11 of Willie Mullins’ 12 handicap winners have come in the County and Martin Pipe), McManus targets all the handicaps, having won between 2 and 5 renewals of 8 of the 9 handicaps run at the 2024 Festival.
The one handicap he’s never won is the Plate, so I’d imagine that race will be a priority. Last year he had 3 runners, including the 2nd & 5th. McManus has 4 entries and the obvious 2 are Jagwar and Crebilly. Jagwar is also entered in the Jack Richards Novices Handicap Chase and would be a player in either.
By contrast, Crebilly is also entered in the Ultima but that’s a test of stamina at the trip and I think he’d be better suited by the Plate. He was inexperienced when sent off 4.5 for it last year and never got into a jumping rhythm. Off 2lb lower, and a more seasoned campaigner now, he looks a player.
By contrast, Michael O’Leary has always said that Gigginstown are only focused on Grade 1s. In fact only 15 of Gigginstown’s 34 wins have been in Grade 1s and with 35% of the winners in handicaps, the record isn’t that dissimilar to McManus’. The reason for this is that whilst O’Leary may not be focused on handicaps, some of his trainers, notably Gordon Elliott, are.
Every owner wants a Gold Cup winner but Gigginstown really do focus on staying chasing types. That’s reflected in the distances their winners have come at – 3 at around the minimum trip, 15 at intermediate trips and 16 at staying distances.
That combination has lead to Gigginstown having an excellent record in the Martin Pipe, which tends to be a strong test of stamina at the 2m4½f trip. Gigginstown are 4/19 (129% profit) with 6 of the 15 losers placed. The Enabler looks an interesting type for it this year.
The Riccis have a very different modus operandi. They tend to own speedy types. 12 of their 22 winners have come at around the minimum trip, 8 at intermediate distance and 2 in staying races.
The Riccis also tend to have plenty of ‘today horses’. 14 of those 22 were in novice/juvenile races and only 6 have come over fences. The sorts of races they win reflects Willie Mullins’ modus operandi as he trains almost all their horses, (and sources many of them). That’s also reflected in the Riccis’ never having had a handicap winner at the Festival.
The Riccis don’t look to have that strong a hand this year with their shortest priced horse, Lossiemouth, having to take on Constitution Hill. Of theirs the fascinating horse is Gaelic Warrior. He’s been disappointing in 3 starts since bolting up in the Arkle but all 3 were on a sound surface.
Willie has talked about bypassing Cheltenham and Gaelic Warrior’s in danger of becoming a forgotten horse. If the ground is really testing again he’d be a real player in the Champion Chase and even if it wasn’t too deep he’d be a live contender in the Ryanair.
There aren’t any other current owners who have had anything like the success of those big 3 operations. Nevertheless there are some interesting trends to bear in mind.
Simon Munir has had 8 winners at the Festival, the first 2 alone and the last 6 as part of what’s now a longstanding partnership with Isaac Souede. All bar 1 of those winners came at around the minimum trip, (and that was in the Turners Novice Hurdle, very much a test of speed at the intermediate trip.) They look short on firepower this season with El Fabiolo having been out of sorts and Jasmin De Vaux being shunted into the Albert Bartlett because of his poor jumping.
Ronnie Bartlett sponsors the Albert Bartlett but it’s another staying race that he has specialised in – the National Hunt Chase. 3 of his 8 winners at the Festival have come in it, all in the last 7 renewals – but he doesn’t have an entry this year.
He has plenty of staying types but I’d be keen to take on Ballyburn in the Broadway, (whom he owns with David Manasseh). He tends to land without momentum at his fences and whilst he’s bred to stay he is a buzzy type – there’s a doubt whether he’d settle well enough to get home.
If we get a sound surface I’d be keener on a couple of Bartlett’s other runners. Banbridge could emerge as the main threat to Galopin Des Champs in the Gold Cup if Fact To File defects and Galvin would look a big player in the Cross Country.
There are 3 ‘new’ owners who need considering. The first, the Donnellys, had a few horses back in the day but got into ownership seriously during 2015/16, having their first Festival runner in 2017. They’ve had 41 runners with 7 winners and 13 of the others placed.
Lulamba is firmly in the could-be-anything category and is a leading contender for the Triumph. Dancing City is very likeable – he goes on any ground but as a thorough stayer he could do with testing ground in the Broadway so he can gallop the finish out speedier rivals.
Salvator Mundi is in danger of becoming the forgotten horse in the Supreme as he looks the B-teamer behind Kopek Des Bordes. It’s worth keeping an eye on the vibes – if Salvator Mundi is working the houses down at home and Paul Townend wants to ride him it could lead to late switches of targets for the Mullins novices.
Brian Acheson, whose horses run under the Robcour banner, has had 34 runners at the last 7 Festivals. An overall record of 4 wins and 6 places is good. In 2024, Slade Steel (Supreme) and Teahupoo (Stayers Hurdle) both won with Irish Point (Champion Hurdle) and Gerri Colombe (Gold Cup) both 2nd from just 7 runners. As the races set out above suggest, Robcour have been more focused on Grade 1s than handicaps.
At the time of writing Teahupoo is Robcour’s only entry at a single figure price in ante-post markets. If he’s in the same form as last season he’ll take plenty of beating in what looks a shallow Stayers Hurdle. Yielding ground and a slow tempo were against him in the Hatton’s Grace but he was still disappointing there, especially given how well he goes fresh. It’ll be interesting to see what the vibes are during Festival week.
The final owners I’ve looked at are Noel & Valerie Moran, whose horses run under the Bective Stud banner who have tended to go mob handed – with 43 runners at the last 5 Festivals. They didn’t enjoy much success until last year, their 33 runners between 2020 and 2023 producing 7 places. Things turned around in 2024 with Better Days Ahead winning the Martin Pipe, after Firefox, Found A Fifty and Sa Fureur all placed.
The Yellow Clay is due to return in either the Turners or the Albert Bartlett. Whether the slog of the latter is what he wants I’d doubt. There may not be the sort of classy Grade 1 winning 2-miler in the Turners this year and The Yellow Clay has plenty of speed so he would be a real contender if running there.
With so many of the best horses in so few hands now punters can, and do, invest a lot of time trying to understand the modus operandi of the likes of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott. There are far fewer interviews with the mega-owners, far fewer owner-tours than stable-tours – if you can understand about the modus operandi of the top owners, especially the newer ones, you can develop a real edge.
Good luck at the Festival this year!
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