I constantly battle complacency during winning streaks.
It is a struggle I have faced for years and something I do my best to avoid and break away from each time I catch a heater.
Last Sunday, I stepped up and doubled my stake for the first time of the season on Cleveland Baltimore Under 41.
It cashed in, and I felt great. I hope you did too.
Last week’s Browns Ravens game was as predicted a defensive struggle.
I woke up on Monday morning, however, feeling a little good about myself. I passed on Monday Night Football. Heck, I only watched the first half of the game.
Tuesday morning, I neglected the NFL again. I was more focused on football of the South American variety backing Junior to beat Cerro Porteno in Copa Sudamericana.
Wednesday morning I woke up – and I caught myself.
Not this time.
I can see the market too well right now. I have too sharp a read, and I need to keep pressing.
The first is the Buffalo Bills.
On Monday evening, I tweeted that I felt bookmakers were very conservative with their opening point spreads.
I got many replies asking, “What about Denver?”
Denver was -1.5 at the time, and I was surprised that so many people thought Denver was overrated and saw value in Buffalo.
It turns out; I was wrong. Everybody loves Denver.
It makes sense. Both of the Broncos games this season have been nationally televised. More bettors have watched Denver win than any other team in the league.
Recency bias is causing a spike in bettors backing the Broncos this week and creating a huge liability for bookmakers. I think the books cash on this one.
This game is a nightmare situation for Denver. The team has not left the city in over five weeks playing their final two preseason and first two regular-season games in altitude at Mile High.
Sunday in Buffalo is an unusual 11 am start time due to the time zone change. Immediately after, they fly back to Denver and begin preparing for an enormous game against Oakland, which leads into their bye week.
Denver has many question marks entering this game. Von Miller, Bradley Roby, Demaryius Thomas and Bennie Fowler are limited in practice this week and are all listed as questionable to play Sunday. Garrett Bolles, starting linemen and a great run blocker is ruled out.
Through two weeks Broncos QB Trevor Siemian has improved on last years performances but the Bills D can get him after him this weekend.
Buffalo has the tools to shut down any ground game. Denver leads the league with 318 yards in two games and relies on the run to open up play action. Buffalo can turn the Broncos attack one-dimensional and force Siemian to make plays.
Next week means a ton to Denver, and I believe Buffalo catches them looking ahead. The Broncos will start slow, fall behind early and never recover. Bills win outright.
The second is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Kansas City is getting the full media treatment this week. I have seen them reach the top of league power rankings created by many media personalities.
I do not buy it for one second.
I think the price on this team is reaching an atrocious level. Alex Smith and company cannot maintain 7.6 yards per play on offense, and they should not get credit for such.
Interestingly enough, the Patriots through two games are allowing 7.5 yards per play. The compounding average grades the Kansas City performance in week one as slightly above average. The market sentiment carried over feels much higher, and it shows via inflated pricing.
When the offense does return to earth, the less than impressive and leaderless Kansas City defense which has a glaring weakness defending the inside run is going to be what makes headlines.
Los Angeles is the complete opposite. After excruciatingly losing their two opening games, the market support for the team cannot be much lower.
Influential bettors are not shying away over two plays. Bookmakers are willing to go to war too, dropping this price slightly in favour of Los Angeles since open despite a massive liability on Kansas City.
The strong play of Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith has been a welcome bonus for Head Coach Andy Reid but it will taper off sooner rather than later.
From a numbers standpoint, the Chargers have performed very well. Despite being 0-2, they have a +0.8 yards per play differential. To put that in perspective, the Falcons finished last season a historically high +1.1 yards per play.
This game is the first time of the season Andy Reid has not had extra time to prepare for an opponent. Both opening games meant a lot to him. One against Belichek, the other against his old organisation. This week on regular rest and prep, I think there is a collective exhale from himself and the coaching staff. I expect a weak game plan and a poor offensive performance from KC.
I believe the market adjusts for both of these teams this week and the Chargers win outright.
