Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with plays from Scandinavia this Sunday.
ELFSBORG CHASING NINE IN A ROW
We’re 10 rounds into the new Allsvenskan season and Elfsborg are the surprise league leaders.
Di Gule concluded 2022 in sixth, yet Jimmy Thelin’s outfit finished the campaign strongly and have continued where they left off with a series of eye-catching efforts.
Having failed to succeed in their opening two outings, Elfsborg have rattled off eight successive league victories by an aggregate 25-6, now look reasonable value at 2.10 to extend that streak on Sunday against Djurgarden.
The raw results have been backed up by table-topping underlying performance data.
The Eleganterna are indeed the strongest suit according to early Expected Goals (xG) ratings, averaging a meaty 2.11 xG per-game.
Put simply, Elfsborg are creating the most goalscoring opportunities in the division whilst simultaneously conceding the fewest.
Whether we inspect the full season or take the most recent four and eight-game splits, Thelin’s troops appear on top for almost all major metrics with those figures taking a hike when Elfsborg are entertaining Allsvenskan opposition at their Boras Arena base.
Second-placed Malmo were smashed 3-0 here last weekend, a match that saw Di Gule generate 1.95 xG.
During Elfsborg’s most recent four home victories, the hosts have produced a dominant aggregate xG tally of 13.80 compared to 3.65 to their visitors.
Come close to those numbers again on Sunday, and the Eleganterna will fancy their chances.
Djurgarden head into the weekend in fourth, fresh from three straight successes of their own. However, all three of the Jarnkaminerna’s triumphs arrived at their Stockholm headquarters with the capital club’s road record leaving plenty to be desired (W0-D1-L4).
The visitors have faced just one side in the top-seven on their travels yet have conceded multiple goals in all four of their defeats.
Djurgarden have notched a maximum of one goal in four of those five games as guests, whilst only two teams have fired in fewer shots on-target on their travels.
BODO BACKED TO EXTEND ADVANTAGE
Bodo/Glimt are the runaway leaders at the summit of the Eliteserien.
Kjetil Knutsen’s crew were Norwegian champions in 2020 and 2021 and have started their 2023 campaign in ominous form as they bid to win back their domestic title (W8-D1-L0).
The Superlaget smashed Viking 5-1 last weekend to extend their advantage at the top to seven points, and Glimt hold plenty of appeal as 1.81 shots on Sunday to overcome a -0.50 Asian Handicap.
The Arctic outfit have scored at least twice in all nine showdowns thus far and have produced a series of dominant away efforts.
Bodo have taken maximum points away from top-half sides Sarpsborg, Lillestrom and Tromso, and are averaging a mighty 1.97 Expected Goals (xG) on the road this season.
Knutsen’s charges average a hugely-impressive 11 shots from inside the penalty area across their four away days, allowing a league-low 5.75 in that same sample.
Valerenga welcome Bodo to the capital on Sunday having lost all four of their fixtures against top-half opposition in 2023, all of which has arrived in their most recent seven showdowns.
The hosts shipped multiple goals in all four defeats with their 3-1 reverse against second-placed Brann particularly chastening.
The Bohemians were also regularly shredded last season when facing-off against the league’s elite.
Enga were beaten in nine of 10 duels with top-five teams. That record includes home and away shreddings by Bodo (6-0 and 5-1), suggesting the hosts struggle when stepping up in class.
Recommended Bets
- Elfsborg -0.50 Asian Handicap in Elfsborg vs Djurgarden – 1 unit @ 2.10
- Bodo/Glimt -0.50 Asian Handicap in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt – 1 unit @ 1.81
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