Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe, focusing on the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 this weekend.
BEDLEM IN THE BUNDESLIGA
Wolfsburg remain right in the hunt for European qualification despite a brave 3-2 defat at Bayern Munich last weekend. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side were a genuine irritant for the table-toppers at the Allianz Arena and come into this weekend’s contest having bagged six wins in their past nine league outings to sit just five points adrift of the top-four positions.
Die Wolfe continued their impressive record in front of goal against Bayern – the Volkswagen club have now plundered multiple goals in eight of their nine encounters with top-half teams, and Wolfsburg should fancy their prospects of enhancing their attacking output on Friday night when relegation-threatened Holstein Kiel are in town.
The newly-promoted visitors are well-accustomed to high-scoring showdowns, epitomised by their most recent five fixtures (1-4, 5-1, 2-3, 4-2, 1-3). During that five-game sample, Kiel have thrashed Augsburg and destroyed Dortmund, whilst the Bundesliga debutants have also been picked apart by Gladbach and Hoffenheim. Defensively, they’re gettable.
Nevertheless, Kiel have gotten on the scoresheet in 14 of their 18 league dates this season, notching in all eight of their away days – even bagging multiple goals in half of those road trips. Six of those eight games as guests have seen Over 3.5 Goals pay-out with all eight dates delivering Both Teams To Score winners and a repeat appeals here at 1.80.
Wolfsburg have seen our proposed play return profit in eight of their nine at the Volkswagen Arena this term with Hasenhuttl’s troops avergaing 2.11 goals per-game in both boxes with matches producing a 3.46 Expected Goals (xG) average. Seven of those nine cleared the Over 3.5 Goals, with 78% of their overall games producing BTTS winners.
- Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel – BTTS – 1 unit @ 1.8
ENTERTAINMENT EXPECTED IN COTE D’AZUR CLASH
The Derby de la Mediterranee takes centre-stage in Ligue 1 on Sunday and the latest Côte d’Azur clash between Nice and Marseille promises plenty. Over 2.5 Goals is available to support at 1.78 and should give punters a good run for their money.
Marseille’s matches have largely been thrilling affairs since Roberto De Zerbi arrived. OM’s league dates are avergaing a hefty 3.39 goals with 67% of those hitting our required Over 2.5 Goals mark, 44% producing four goals or more and 72% paying-out for Both Teams To Score backers – Les Phoceens have scored in 16/18 but kept just 3/18 clean sheets.
The nine-time champions have proven a real menace on their travels this term, striking at least twice in eight of their nine away days, scoring 3+ goals on five occasions, including at the likes of Lyon, Lens, Brest and Rennes. Those fixtures outside the Stade Velodrome are avergaing 3.20 Expected Goals (xG) with over six Big Chances per-game.
Marseille’s only away clean sheets have come against bottom-three opponents and so it’s difficult to see OM silencing an enterprising Nice outfit here. Les Aiglons have been great fun to follow under Franck Haise with 3.39 goals per-game on average – 67% of contests covering the Over 2.5 Goals line and 78% of overall outings delivering BTTS profit.
Nine of Nice’s past 10 Ligue 1 matches have seen both Over 2.5 and Both Teams To Score pay, with 11 of their most recent 12 league fixtures land for the latter market, including five of their six meetings with top-six teams. Les Aiglons are seeing around five Big Chances created on average with a 3.00 xG per-game figure across their campaign thus far.
Haise’s outfit have scored in 16/18 Ligue 1 matches and also managed just three clean sheets of their own, whilst at the Allianz Riviera, the hosts have seen six of eight break the Over 2.5 barrier and seven of those eight collect for BTTS backers. It’s a statistically strong selection to support Over 2.5 Goals at 1.77 when BTTS is trading at just 1.55.
- Nice vs Marseille – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.77
Recommended Bets
- Wolfsburg vs Holstein Kiel – BTTS – 1 unit @ 1.8
- Nice vs Marseille – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.77
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