Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Serie A.
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The @MarkOHaire show as he joins @DanielHussey2 to preview this weekend's games, with a couple of big prices put up 👀https://t.co/ouJwQTYwW7 👈https://t.co/Af9cNOuldq
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Antonio Conte’s reign at Napoli started woefully with the Partenopei suffering a disastrous 3-0 defeat away at Hellas Verona on MD1. However, the Scudetto-winning coach has barely put a foot wrong since, guiding the group to the top of the Serie A standings with a W6-D1-L0 return from the following seven showdowns.
Napoli’s only dropped points in that seven-game sequence came away at Juventus (0-0) and the Partenopei have conceded just one non-penalty goal in that same sample. Going great guns, it’s easy to see why Conte’s charges are rated such short favourites to see off lowly Leece at the Stadio Maradona on Saturday.
Nevertheless, we can bolster the odds on offer by backing Napoli to win alongside Both Teams To Score ‘No’ at a very generous 2.06. The hosts have conceded just one non-penalty goal in four fixtures at their Stadio Maradona base this season and have seen six of their eight overall league dates deliver profitable BTTS No wagers.
Last weekend Napoli needed a controversial penalty converted by Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to secure top honours away at a stubborn Empoli side, although Lecce are unlikely to offer the same sort of resistance. The visitors were thrashed 6-0 at home by Fiorentina in their most recent outing, a third straight reverse without troubling the scoresheet.
Lecce have dropped to second-bottom in the Serie A table, notching only three goals in eight encounters and blanking on six occasions. Luca Gotti’s group have failed to score in all four road trips thus far, seeing our proposed play pay-out when travelling to Inter, Milan and Udinese, whilst the Giallorossi are yet to net in six contests with top-half opposition.
Both Teams To Score ‘No’ has been the correct selection in 13 of the combined 16 league matches involving Napoli and Lecce, and so it makes sense to include it alongside table-toppers Napoli here with an attractive value-laden price on offer.
The Derby D’Italia is one of the standout fixtures of the season in Italy, although Sunday night’s renewal between defending champions Inter and rapidly-improving Juventus may not be one for the purists. Nine of the last 11 meetings between the Serie A giants have produced Under 2.5 Goals, with five of those 11 and three of the past five featuring Under 1.5 Goals.
Traditionally tight affairs, I’m expecting a repeat at San Siro, and therefore happy to support Both Teams To Score ‘No’ here at 1.83. Neither side impressed in their midweek Champions League outings – Inter required a stoppage-time goal to win at Young Boys, whilst Juve were beaten without scoring at home to Stuttgart – and this could prove to be another slog.
Juventus’ defensive process has been exceptional under Thiago Motta. In Serie A, the Old Lady are giving up just 0.43 Expected Goals (xG), six shots, and 1.38 on-target attempts per-game on average – the Bianconeri have also leaked a solitary strike in eight, an extraordinary effort. However, the visitors have scored only 11 goals of their own.
Interestingly, Juve have already played out three goalless draws in that eight-game sample, including their high-stakes clash with Napoli, so a repeat is perfectly plausible against an Inter outfit that’s silenced both Roma and Young Boys in the past week. The Nerazzurri have kept two clean sheets in four San Siro outings this term and tend to rise for the big occasion.
Considering how tight the top of the Serie A table is right now, both sides will operate with a must-not-lose mentality on Sunday and a low-scoring contest looks more likely.
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