Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on England & Brazil this weekend.
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Some big prices put up 👀
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Nottingham Forest are nestled in the top-four of the Premier League at this stage of a season for the first time since 1998 and Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are there on merit, sitting as high as sixth on Expected Points (xP) and impressing across the board. It’s therefore surprising to see the Tricky Trees chalked up as outsiders at home to Newcastle on Sunday.
The Reds are organised and efficient operators, built from the back with Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo forming one of the division’s strongest centre-back partnerships. Forest boast the second-strongest non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) against figures in the EPL, whilst no side has allowed fewer Big Chances, conceding only seven goals in 10 outings.
Ryan Yates has stepped up magnificently in the middle of the park, Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliott Anderson are huge threats in forward areas with Chris Wood in the form of his life at the top end of the field. Nuno’s built a rounded, energetic and well drilled outfit that gives little away, and I’m happy to get Nottingham Forest onside here.
After all, the hosts have already won at Liverpool, drawn at Chelsea and Brighton, and suffered a solitary loss in 10 this term. Go back further and Forest have been beaten just five times in 20 top-flight tussles since early March and so they should give us a good run for our money when backing Nottingham Forest Double Chance and Under 4.5 Goals.
Only one of the Reds’ last 22 league dates have produced five strikes or more, and they’re facing a Newcastle side that’s won only seven of their past 24 away days in the Premier League, six of which were achieved at bottom-half clubs. The Magpies were turned over in 13 of those fixtures and they’re a difficult side to trust when away from St James’ Park.
Eddie Howe’s team have managed a paltry three clean sheets in the aforementioned 24 games outside of Tyneside and those defensive drawbacks are making it extra difficult for Newcastle on their travels. It’s difficult to justify the Magpies as favourites here and the Bet Builder option looks a great value way to support the home side.
Botafogo’s convincing 3-0 midweek success against Vasco da Gama has sent the table-toppers six points clear of the chasing pack as we turn for home in the Brasileirao. Artur Jorge’s team have now dropped points just three times in their last 10 league games and enhanced their exceptional record at their Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos base.
Fogo have claimed top honours in 11 of 16 home encounters on their plastic pitch in Rio, silencing eight sides in their own backyard. The league leaders have leaked just 11 goals in that same sample, with their defensive record really coming to the fore in recent months – Saturday night’s hosts have conceded just one non-penalty goal in their last nine matches.
This weekend, Botafogo bid to continue their march to the title by overcoming a Cuiba side that’s struggling to survive. The visitors are seven points from safety having claimed three Serie A victories since June – it’s nine defeats in 16, they’ve failed to even score in nine of their most recent 11 and their only away goal in eight came from the penalty spot.
Cuiba have fired blanks in nine of their previous 16 away days, averaging just 0.75 goals, and rank rock-bottom for almost all major attacking metrics in Brazil’s top-flight, so I’m quite happy to snap up attractive 1.83 quotes on Botafogo to win and Both Teams To Score ‘NO’ here.
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