Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from Japan and Norway…
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FREDRIK FANCIED
The new Eliteserien campaign is now around nine matchdays deep with defending champions Bodo/Glimt taking up top spot. However, just two points shy of the summit in third-place is newly-promoted Fredrikstad (W6-D2-L1) with the Aristokratene making a very positive early impression on their return to top-flight football following a 12-year absence
Having taken top Obos-Ligaen honours last term, Mychal Thomassen’s promotion-winning side suffered only two defeats in their 30 fixtures, as well as boasting the division’s best defence. FFK have continued where they left off in 2023, recording four clean sheets in their opening nine encounters, and shipping just seven goals in the process.
Unbeaten in eight since their opening day defeat against Bodo, Fredrikstad are beginning to command respect from their Eliteserien opposition with the newcomers now sitting third in the Expected Points (xP) table and boasting a very impressive 57% Expected Goals (xG) ratio return. FFK have also plundered 13 goals in their most recent four league fixtures.
On Saturday, Thomassen’s team entertain Tromso and I’m eager to support the hosts at 1.75. Tromso enjoyed a memorable 2023 season – surpassing all pre-season predictions to finish third and qualify for Europe, but the squad has been pilfered since with highly-rated boss Gaute Helstrup leaving to take up the assistant manager’s role with Bodo.
Understandably, Tromso have struggled to regain last term’s heights with the Gutan dropping to the bottom of the early-season standings (W2-D0-L6). The visitors have failed to score in half of their eight outings thus far, and rank as the second-worst side when viewing performance data metrics, which include allowing a hefty 1.92 xG per-game in 2024.
With Tromso giving up at least 1.90 xG in six of those aforementioned eight matches, in-form Fredrikstad should fancy their chances of extending their unbeaten streak here with a home victory appealing at 1.75.
- Fredrikstad to win in Fredrikstad vs Tromso – 1 unit @ 1.75
GET WITH GRAMPUS
We’re almost halfway through the 2024 J-League campaign and Nagoya are still hoping to stake a claim at a first top-flight title since 2010. Sitting seven points shy of the summit, Grampus Eight have struggled for consistency at times (W8-D1-L6), although their best work has undoubtedly been done against the league’s lesser lights.
Conservative head coach Kenta Hasegawa has been criticised for his pragmatic style against the division’s big guns, with Nagoya losing all five of their fixtures against the current top-six. However, when The Eight have faced sides outside of the upper echelon this season, they’ve produced a formidable W8-D1-L1 return.
This weekend, Hasegawa’s outfit welcome rock-bottom Kyoto to the Toyoya Stadium and we’re being offered the chance to support the home side here at 2.00. Nagoya have already taken top honours from three away trips at bottom-five dwellers in 2024 with The Eight also posting an impressive W8-D1-L3 across their most recent 12 J-League tussles.
Kyoto have steered clear of relegation trouble in their previous two seasons since promotion, but Sanga are struggling to match their previous heights thus far (W2-D3-L10).
The visitors have lost eight of their previous nine encounters, have won once in 12 and have failed to even score in seven of 10. Kyoto have shipped 14 goals in their last four matches.
- Nagoya Grampus to win in Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto – 1 unit @ 2.0
Recommended Bets
- Fredrikstad to win in Fredrikstad vs Tromso – 1 unit @ 1.75
- Nagoya Grampus to win in Nagoya Grampus vs Kyoto – 1 unit @ 2.0
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