Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on France and Brazil this weekend.
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GOALS GALORE IN FRENCH FRACAS
The Roberto De Zerbi era at Marseille has gotten off to a predictably lively start in France – OM have plundered 10 goals across their opening three Ligue 1 outings, whilst also conceding on four occasions. All three fixtures have featured Over 3.5 Goals with Both Teams To Score backers also collecting a full house of winners.
Marseille’s players already look comfortable in the 4-2-3-1 formation De Zerbi has introduced and I’m hopeful Saturday afternoon’s encounter against Nice can follow a familiar theme with Over 2.5 Goals too big to ignore at 1.80. It’s a price that’s unlikely to be around once the markets adjust to the De Zerbi way of life in Ligue 1.
We’ve seen the goals per-game and Over 2.5 Goals hit-rates leap significantly during De Zerbi’s reigns with Sassuolo in Serie A, as well as with Brighton in the Premier League, and so it’s no coincidence to see something similar unfurling in France.
Meanwhile, Nice are also under new management with former Lens boss Franck Haise taking the job this summer. Les Aiglons have improved after an early hiccup with OGC’s outings proving particularly enjoyable; in fact, Nice’s first three fixtures have featured a higher Expected Goals (xG) output than Marseille’s with all three seeing BTTS pay-out.
Two of those three tussles clicked in our proposed Over 2.5 Goals markets, a welcome change from previous campaigns where Nice were renowned for their dreary and uneventful style. That’s a key element as to why the market hasn’t completely adjusted here but we can expect the visitors to give Marseille a right good game in this Côte d’Azur clash.
- Marseille vs Nice – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.8
FLU TO FLOP AS FALSE FAVS
Newly-promoted Juventude are nestled in mid-table of Brazil’s top-flight as the Serie A season turns for home. The club from Caxias do Sul have built their promising campaign upon their work at their Estadio Alfredo Jaconi base, losing just twice in front of their own supporters (W6-D4-L2) and downing the likes of Botafogo, Flamengo and Gremio here.
Jair Ventura has implemented a suffocating high-press, causing opposition outfits plenty of headaches – the hosts therefore command more respect than the market is giving the group this weekend. Juventude are involved in cup action on Thursday, but Ventura is prioritising Sunday’s showdown with Fluminense, a sentiment unlikely to be shared by their opposition.
Fluminense have turned their season around significantly over the past two months, rising above the relegation drop-zone and reaching the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals. The first leg of their Liberatores last-eight clash takes place in midweek and Flu are set to rest and rotate ahead of their continental clash, putting their status as favourites here under threat.
What’s more, Fluminense have recently sold star midfielder Andre to Wolves, weakening the squad. The visitors are already only W3-D1-L8 on their league travels this term and with eyes potentially elsewhere, there’s potential for Flu to flop at short prices – I’ll happily then support Juventude with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap market at 1.77 quotes.
- Juventude vs Fluminense – Juventude +0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 1.77
Recommended Bets
- Marseille vs Nice – Over 2.5 Goals – 1 unit @ 1.8
- Juventude vs Fluminense – Juventude +0.0/0.5 Asian Handicap – 1 unit @ 1.77
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