Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Belgium and the 2.Bundesliga this weekend.
Genk (W11-D2-L3) currently lead the way in Belgium’s top-flight and the wonderfully nicknamed De Smurfen (quite literally, The Smurfs) are fancied to enhance their position at the top of the table with a cushy home triumph over struggling Kortrijk on Saturday. Backing Genk with a -1.25 Asian Handicap start appeals with the Blauw-Wit expected to dominate.
Thorsten Fink’s team comfortably clear of the pack across almost all major data metrics, sitting at the summit for both Expected Points (xP) and Expected Goals (xG) ratio, avergaing an enormous 1.99 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) and already generating 49 Big Chances in just 16 league encounters (an average of 3.06 per-game thus far).
The bulk of the Blauw-Wit’s damage has been done at their Cegeka Arena base (W7-D1-L0), where De Smurfen have plundered 18 goals and conceded just five. When hosting bottom-six opposition, Genk have tabled 3-0, 4-0 and 3-2 victories – we require the hosts to win by two goals or more to be paid, only losing half of our stake from a solitary-goal success.
Kortrijk have posted W1-D1-L6 on their travels, the latest four fixtures of which have ended in 0-4, 0-4, 0-3 and 0-3 losses. The visitors have managed only four goals on the road, with five of their six away defeats arriving by a margin of three goals or more – the strugglers have the worst away attack according to the data and give up over 2.00 xG per-game.
An impressive six-game unbeaten streak has pushed Kaiserslautern (W4-D2-L0) into the 2.Bundesliga’s top-three ahead of the weekend. FCK smashed table-toppers Paderborn 3-0 during that same sample and the attack-minded Die Roten Teufel appear underrated for Saturday’s showdown with the 1.91 on Kaiserslautern to score Over 1.5 Goals standing-out.
Lautern have covered this line in nine of their 14 overall 2.Bundesliga fixtures thus far, doing so in all six of their showdowns at the Fritz-Walter-Stadium. In half of those home encounters, FCK have struck three times or more, whilst Markus Anfang’s outfit have been averaging a formidable 1.81 non-penalty Expected Goals (npxG) as hosts this season.
Kaiserslautern now face fellow high-flyers Karlsruher, although the visitors relinquished their league-leading position recently following a disappointing recent run (W1-D1-L3) where KSC have conceded multiple goals in 4/5. In fact, Christian Eichner’s troops have now leaked at least twice in nine of 14 league fixtures, including 4/5 trips to the top-13.
Karlsruher are also facing a quick turnaround from a taxing midweek. KSC were involved in DFB Pokal action on Wednesday night, taking top-tier Augsburg to extra-time. However, Karlsruher conceded an agonising stoppage-time equaliser and were eventually beaten on penalties. Fatigue is bound to play a part as they travel to well-rested and in-form Lautern.
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