Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe, focusing on Germany and Scotland this weekend.
Nordi Mukiele late goal gave Bayer Leverkusen a sixth successive victory across all competitions in midweek as Die Werkself edged out Inter Milan in the Champions League. Xabi Alonso’s outfit have consolidated their position in the top-eight of Europe’s premier club competition and return to action on Saturday with a tricky trip to Augsburg.
The defending Bundesliga champions have understandably struggled to maintain last season’s sky-high standards. Leverkusen come into this weekend’s clash with a solitary league clean sheet this term as six of their 13 opponents have struck at least twice against Die Werkself. I’m not expecting that defensive data to significantly improve in Bavaria.
Augsburg traditionally operate in the bottom-half of the German top-flight, yet the Fuggerstadter are always capable of causing problems at their WWK Arena base. The hosts have gotten on the scoresheet in 20 of their 24 Bundesliga dates here going back to the start of last term, averaging 1.58 goals per-game in that same sample.
However, Augsburg have also managed just four shutouts in those 24 tussles, leading to a massive 71% of matches here featuring Over 2.5 Goals. Both Teams To Score has also proven a regular winner with contest against Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund (x2), Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig all seeing both sides oblige. A repeat appeals.
Leverkusen have notched in all of their away days under Alonso in the Bundesliga with 15 of those 23 match-ups seeing both Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS provide profit. Meanwhile, in 2024/25, these two teams have combined to see 20 (77%) of their 26 Bundesliga showdowns have followed suit as the duo have managed a paltry three clean sheets.
Kilmarnock look underrated ahead of Sunday’s showdown against fellow strugglers Hearts. Both sides occupy bottom-three positions in the Scottish Premiership, tabling just three triumphs each after 16 rounds of action. However, circumstances favour the home side this weekend, whilst the market has made the visitors unappealing short-priced favourites.
Hearts have managed just five victories in 23 across all competitions this season, losing nine of 12 away days. The Jam Tarts are also involved in European action on Thursday night, with a tough trip to FC Copenhagen undoubtedly effecting recovery and preparation for Sunday. The Jambos have managed W0-D2-L4 in games immediately after Thursday night football.
The capital club have also silenced just two of their 23 opponents this term, as well as losing the shots in the box count in seven of their previous away days in the Premiership. Whilst Hearts have certainly improved since their dreadful opening efforts to 2024/25, I’m still prepared to oppose them at Rubby Park considering Kilmarnock’s exceptional home record.
Killie have been conquered here just five times by non-Old Firm sides since February 2021 – it’s an astonishing record that commands enormous respect. The home side have toppled Rangers here already this season and the underlying data displays how difficult Derek McInnes’ men can be to overhaul on their plastic patch.
Kilmarnock have won the Expected Goals (xG) battle in five of six Rugby Park showdowns thus far, whilst giving up the fourth-lowest non-penalty xG (npxG) figure as hosts, and the home side therefore hold plenty of appeal with a +0.25 Asian Handicap start here at 1.85 – we’ll make money should McInnes’ charges avoid defeat against Hearts.
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