Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Premier League and Championship this weekend.
Aston Villa enjoyed a rare away-day success in midweek as they bagged a 3-1 victory over Club Brugge in the Champions League. The Villans will be buoyed by the result, and the return of many front-line players from injury, though Unai Emery’s outfit were flattered by the final score and doubts persist over their defensive data, as well as their road record.
It’s now just two away clean sheets in 19 across all competitions for Villa, with the Second City club conceding at least twice in 10 of their most recent 15 fixtures on their travels. Meanwhile, Aston Villa have also returned a rotten W1-D1-L7 in their last nine games as guests in the Premier League. Include home outings and it’s just three wins in 11.
Brentford have the tools to hurt Villa here. The Bees might be winless in six at their Gtech Community Stadium base, yet Thomas Frank’s team pack a significant punch with their dynamic front-three of Yoane Wissa, Bryan Mbeumo and Kevin Schade scoring 33 of the club’s 48 league goals this season – 22 of those strikes arriving here at the Gtech.
Both sides are well capable of getting on the scoresheet here and so a first port of call is to back Both Teams To Score. Villa are the leading lights for BTTS wagers in the EPL this season, hitting the target in 71% of showdowns, whilst Brentford are fourth on the list with a 67% hit-rate as the pair have combined to keep only eight clean sheets in 55 collective contests.
But with BTTS too short to support as a single, we can engineer a more palatable odds-against offering by including Under 4.5 Goals into the mix. A tasty 84% of all Premier League matches have featured fewer than five strikes, as have 25 of Aston Villa’s 28 league dates. Brentford have followed suit in 19 of 21 when facing sides outside of the bottom-four.
Burnley moved to within two points of the Championship automatic promotion spots despite conceding their first league goal in 2025 as they won 2-1 at Cardiff in midweek. The Welsh outfit ended the Clarets’ magnificent 12-game clean-sheet streak in the league, conceding for the first time in 1,132 minutes and just their 10th league strike of the season.
I’m backing business to resume this weekend as Burnley welcome lowly Luton to Turf Moor. Scott Parker’s side have recorded an outrageous 25 shutouts in 35 Championship outings and we can support Burnley Double Chance and Both Teams To Score – No at 1.80 quotes here despite the wager winning 25 times this term, including in 13 of 17 Turf Moor tussles.
The selection covers Burnley to win to nil, as well as the 0-0 draw, and the Clarets have provided profit for the proposed play in 16 of 20 encounters against bottom-half opposition. Luton remain in the relegation mire despite beating Portsmouth last week, their first taste of success in 13 fixtures (W1-D3-L9). However, the Hatters tend to toil on their travels.
Town have won just once on the road, losing 14 of their 17 matches outside of Kenilworth Road with the visitors losing without even scoring in six of eight trips to the current top-10. Luton have failed to score and lost by multiple goals at all of Leeds, Sheffield United and Sunderland this season and a repeat could well be on the cards in Lancashire here too.
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