After a split weekend, football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies, with a pair of plays from Germany and Austria…
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GOALS FORECAST FOR KOLN CONTEST
Eight of last weekend’s nine MD9 fixtures in the Bundesliga banked for Over 2.5 Goals backers, increasing the sky-high goals per-game output to 3.67 across the German top-flight this season.
An enormous 75% of overall fixtures have now featured Over 2.5 Goals with 53% of encounters producing four strikes or more.
Augsburg have been heavy contributors to those totals – eight of FCA’s nine Bundesliga matches have returned Over 2.5 Goals pay-outs – and the Fuggerstädter have therefore been a consistent presence in my Insights columns with those nine contests returning a ridiculous 4.33 goals per-game average, five of which went Over 3.5.
Augsburg’s first two fixtures under new boss Jess Thorup have been particularly wild.
The Bavarians battled back from 2-0 down to beat Heidenheim 5-2 in his opener, and FCA also overcame a 2-1 deficit to beat Wolfsburg 3-2 last weekend – that’s a total of 12 goals across just 180 minutes worth of football, an average of a goal every 15 minutes.
The Fuggerstädter have seen seven of nine provide Both Teams To Score profits, but their dismal defensive figures also deserve to be highlighted.
FCA are still yet to keep their sheets clean this term, shipping two goals or more in eight of those nine top-flight tussles.
Fortunately for Augsburg, their Saturday opponents, Koln have been suffering from similar rearguard woes.
Die Geißböcke were demolished 6-0 at Leipzig last time out, are still searching for their first shutout of 2023/24 and have also conceded multiple strikes in six of their nine match-ups.
Nevertheless, Steffen Baumgart’s boys impressed when overcoming Borussia Monchengladbach here in the Rhine derby a fortnight ago, and Koln should be well capable of playing their part in an open and exciting encounter; three of their first four RheinEnergieStadion showdowns have banked for Over 2.5 and BTTS supporters.
So goals are my preferred angle of attack with Over 2.5 Goals trading at a chunky 1.75. Our proposed play has paid in 14 (78%) of Koln and Augsburg’s combined 18 Bundesliga dates this term, with the duo also collectively conceding two goals or more in 14 of those 18 fixtures.
Another high-scorer should, therefore, be on the cards.
- Koln vs Augsburg OVER 2.5 GOALS – 1 unit @ 1.7
OPPOSE LOUSY LUSTENAU
A rare trip to the Austrian Bundesliga on Saturday with Austria Lustenau enduring a season to forget.
After 12 rounds of action, the Vorarlberg club are winless (W0-D3-L9) and rock-bottom, whilst in midweek Markus Mader’s men suffered a hugely embarrassing 4-0 thrashing in a domestic cup clash away at second-tier opposition.
The midweek defeat means Lustenau have now failed to score in nine of their most recent 10 league and cup contests, shipping two goals or more on seven occasions and conceding at least three times in six such showdowns.
Meanwhile, Mader’s strugglers are returning just a 27% Expected Goals (xG) ratio in Bundesliga action, giving up 2.13 xG per game.
It therefore makes sense to oppose the visitors when they travel to the capital to face Austria Wien this weekend. Die Veilchen have already beaten Lustenau 2-0 away in August and arrive at their latest head-to-head having won four on the spin, keeping clean sheets in each of their past five fixtures across league and cup.
No Austrian Bundesliga outfit can better Austria Wien’s tally of six shutouts from 12 tussles in 2023/24, so I’m pretty happy to support the home side enhancing that impressive return by backing Austria Wien to win and Both Teams To Score – No here at 2.42 – a very healthy increase on the straight home win price of 1.37.
- AUSTRIA WIEN & BTTS NO vs Austria Lustenau – 1 unit @ 2.42
Recommended Bets
- Koln vs Augsburg OVER 2.5 GOALS – 1 unit @ 1.7
- AUSTRIA WIEN & BTTS NO vs Austria Lustenau – 1 unit @ 2.42
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