Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Germany and France this weekend.
Kaiserslautern lost ground in their quest for Bundesliga promotion following a goalless draw at home to Hannover and a tough 3-0 defeat at fellow high-flyers Hamburg last weekend. However, third-placed FCK have a fantastic opportunity to return to winning ways on Saturday when they welcome rock-bottom Jahn Regensburg to the Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
Six points from safety with one of the worst road records on the continent (W0-D1-L10), Regensburg have been beaten in 16 of their 23 2.Bundesliga matches thus far. The visitors have conceded at least twice in all 10 of their away defeats, shipping an average of 3.18 goals per-game on their travels. They face an average of 2.20 Expected Goals (xG) away).
Propping up almost every available metric, Regensburg have only faced two top-seven sides on the road this season and were hammered 3-0 and 5-0, making the 2.05 available on Kaiserslautern to win and Over 1.5 Goals a sensible angle of attack.
We’re effectively backing Lautern to score twice in victory. The hosts are already averaging 2.00 goals per-game at the Fritz-Walter, striking twice or more in nine of their 11 home dates, averaging 1.75 xG, six shots on-target and 3.50 Big Chances per-game. Markus Anfang’s front-foot team should be well-capable of enhancing those figures here.
This wager has won in four of FCK’s six fixtures when hosting bottom-half sides and holds plenty of appeal at odds-against quotes this weekend.
Marseille have endured a miserable week after falling 13 points off the title race following a shock 3-0 defeat at Auxerre in a match mired in controversy and fall-out. Already angered by the refereeing appointment for the fixture, a red card for defender Derek Cornelius when OM were one goal down sparked an embarrassing implosion on and off the pitch.
Coach Robeto De Zerbi and president Pablo Longoria have all attracted heavy criticism for their post-match comments with the latter even suggesting Ligue 1 is corrupt, threatening to take the team out of the league and join a Super League when the opportunity arises.
This has all created a smokescreen for Marseille’s recent form. Third-place Nice have moved to within three points of OM and suddenly Champions League football next season doesn’t look quite so comfortable. Will we see an immediate response? Possibly, yet Les Phoceens have failed to win six of their 11 Stade Velodrome games and are best left alone.
A more attractive way into Marseille’s match-up with Nantes is goals. The hosts have managed a solitary shutout in front of their own supporters this season, yet Both Teams To Score is trading around the 1.80 mark. It’s proven a profitable angle of attack in nine of OM’s 11 home dates thus far, as well as 10 of Nantes’s 12 road trips.
Nantes are fighting for their lives but have shown great pedigree for getting on the scoresheet. Since the opening day, Les Canaris have notched in 19 of their 22 Ligue 1 contests, including trips to PSG, Lille and Monaco. However, the guests have also kept their sheets clean just once in their last 20 showdowns dating back to August.
Subscribe to the Matchbook Betting Podcast here
Subscribe to the Matchbook YouTube channel here
