Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire is looking to keep his insights run going. Having profited from his last 4 insights selections, Mark returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of goals-based plays from Spain and Germany.
BOTH TO OBLIGE IN THE BERNABEU
I’m expecting entertainment on Sunday night as Champions League holders Real Madrid entertain high-flying Real Sociedad at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium with Both Teams To Score simply too big to ignore at 1.95 quotes.
It’s a wager that’s already won in 13 of Madrid’s 17 La Liga matches this term – a 74% success-rate – with all seven of their home fixtures paying-out to BTTS backers.
Therefore, the opportunity to support a repeat at close to even-money stands out.
Carlo Ancelotti’s charges come into the weekend three points shy of bitter rivals Barcelona at the top of the table with Los Blancos having recently suffered defeat to the Catalans in the Super Cup final.
Madrid bounced back to beat Villarreal in a ding-dong battle before dispatching Athletic Club 2-0 at San Mames last weekend.
Despite recording just a fourth clean sheet in 17 league dates in Bilbao, Ancelotti’s outfit came under plenty of pressure against Athletic.
The Basques fired in 18 shots – 13 of which arrived from inside the penalty area – and it’s worth noting too that three of Los Blancos’ four shutouts thus far have arrived against bottom-five dwellers.
David Alaba’s return from injury will provide a lift to Madrid’s rearguard, although Los Merengues’ best work is undoubtedly done in forward areas.
The hosts have scored in every La Liga game this season, and struck twice or more on 13 occasions, already tilting us towards a match with goalmouth action at both ends of the field.
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Real Sociedad are third, only three points shy of Real Madrid.
Expected Points (xP) rankings support the idea that the Txuri-Urdinak are flying-high on merit rather than any great fortune, with La Real also boasting the division’s best Expected Goals (xG) when taking to the road.
Imanol Alguacil’s troops have already scored in eight of their nine away days.
Since the World Cup break, Sociedad have been in fine form too. The Basques have picked up maximum points from their four La Liga encounters, notching twice or more in each contest.
With David Silva, Brais Mendez, Alexander Sorloth, Mikel Oyarzabal and Takefusa Kubo all contributing, the visitors have the potential to make a real game of it on Sunday.
GOALS FORECAST FOR GERMANY
It’s difficult to dismiss goals when Bayer Leverkusen and Borussia Dortmund go head-to-head in a mouthwatering Bundesliga battle on Sunday afternoon.
The two teams played out a tame tussle on the opening day of the campaign yet matches involving the North Rhine-Westphalia pair tend to be explosive affairs.
The past 12 match-ups have produced a goals per-game average of 4.83 with 10 ties breaking the Over 2.5 barrier, nine featuring four goals or more and BTTS obliging on nine occasions.
Last season’s two match-ups produced 14 goals, and fixtures between top-four rivals (including Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig) were largely thrilling affairs.
The 12 encounters between the four German giants averaged 4.50 goals per-game with 10 of 12 such showdowns delivering Over 2.5 Goals, nine surpassing Over 3.5 and 11 banking for BTTS.
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The 2022/23 renewals haven’t proven quite so prolific, although Bayer have still seen seven of nine showdowns against top-10 opposition cover the Over 2.5 Goals line.
Eight of Dortmund’s 11 encounters with teams outside the bottom-six have also produced a minimum of three goals. Form since the World Cup break also points towards a high total.
Leverkusen are moving in the right direction under Xabi Alonso, earning five straight Bundesliga victories, including back-to-back triumphs in 2023.
Die Werself bagged a thrilling 3-2 win at Gladbach before beating Bochum 2-0 at home; Dortmund pinched a memorable 4-3 success against Augsburg and then overcame Mainz 2-1 in stoppage-time.
With two gung-ho teams crossing swords, and legitimate doubts about their ability to keep things tight defensively, I’m more than happy to back the Overs on a high goal line.
Recommended Bets
- BTTS in Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad – 1 unit @ 1.95
- Over 2.5/3.0 Goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund – 1 unit @ 1.75
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