Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Premier League this weekend.
Manchester City’s collapse continued last weekend as the Citizens were turned over at home to Manchester United at The Etihad. Having started the Premier League campaign with seven wins from nine unbeaten matches, the defending champions have managed a solitary success in their following seven, suffering five league losses in that same sample.
Extend that slide across all competitions and Pep Guardiola’s group are in an unprecedented position of woe. The derby defeat was their eighth reverse in 11 (W1-D2-L8) with Man City shipping multiple goals in 10 of those tussles. Four of their eight defeats have arrived by a two-goal margin or more, whilst leads have been lost on multiple occasions.
City’s misery has been amplified on their travels. The Blue Moon have posted W0-D1-L6 in seven recent away days, conceding at least two goals in every encounter. Guardiola is increasingly suggesting he is struggling to find an answer to the current situation and a trip to Villa Park for an early Saturday kick-off looks unlikely venue for a dramatic gearshift.
Man City have lost and drawn on their last two trips to Aston Villa and considering only four clubs have conceded more Big Chances in the Premier League this season, and with the Citizens allowing an enormous 1.88 Expected Goals (xG) per-game over their last eight EPL outings, it’s hard to have confidence in the visiting team here at 2.18 quotes.
I’m therefore happy to support Aston Villa with a +0.5 start at 1.83. Unai Emery’s outfit come into the contest without midweek distractions – the hosts have failed to win any of their last seven games following midweek matches and are ranked second in the Premier League’s home Expected Points (xP) rankings, winning the xG battle in seven of eight here.
Over the past 12 months, the Villains have toppled City, Arsenal and Bayern Munich here, showing a real penchant for raising their game against the European elite and another intense effort should pay dividends with a positive result against an ailing City side.
The Premier League is avergaing 3.02 goals per-game this season with 60% of fixtures featuring Over 2.5 Goals. I’m therefore surprised to see the lines and prices available on a repeat when Brentford host Nottingham Forest on Saturday – Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 1.78, a price that implies a 56% chance of success despite both sides being big contributors.
Matches at Brentford’s Community Stadium have been wild affairs. Seven of eight have crossed the Over 2.5 barrier, six have produced 4+ goals, with five featuring a minimum of five goals. Both Teams To Score has banked in all eight, with an average of 5.00 goals per-game delivered – go back to the beginning of last term and Over 2.5 has a 74% hit-rate here.
Nottingham Forest come into this clash having covered the goals line in seven of eight, whilst Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have only fired blanks at Man City and Arsenal in their eight away days thus far, five of which hit the Over 2.5 Goals mark. Meanwhile, 11 (61%) of 18 overall away days under Nuno’s watch have seen three strikes or more.
The Tricky Trees have notched in 14 of those 18 road trips, recording just two clean sheets, suggesting the Reds will be well capable of contributing to a potentially goal-heavy game. Both sides provide plenty of threat from set-pieces, have real ability in transitions, and pack enough punch to fashion goalscoring opportunities from open play.
Three of the four meetings since Forest’s promotion have paid-out for Over 2.5 Goals backers and I’m eager to support a repeat at the favourable lines on offer this weekend.
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