Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on Serie A and the Bundesliga this weekend.
Claudio Ranieri took over a Roma team in turmoil back in mid-November. The Giallorossi sat just four points above the relegation zone having already dismissed both Daniele De Rossi and Ivan Juric, yet the veteran only required a month to get the capital club firing.
Incredibly, only Inter have won more Serie A points than Roma since Ranieri’s arrival. The Giallorossi have claimed 36 points from 17 league matches, also boasting the division’s best defence. Since early December, the veteran’s league record in-charge reads a magnificent W11-D3-L1 whilst more recently the Lupi are unbeaten in 13, winning six on the spin.
Roma won the derby and held both Milan and Napoli during their recent upsurge, though the majority of their best work has been achieved against the league’s lesser lights. Under Ranieri, the Giallorossi have picked up 13 triumphs from 14 against sides in 10th and below – that record includes four successive victories on the road against bottom-half opposition.
I’m therefore happy to back Roma at 1.92 on Saturday when they head to Lecce. Lecce are just three points above the relegation zone, have lost four on the spin and won only six of their 29 Serie A showdowns across the campaign – the hosts are avergaing just 0.72 goals per-game and have W0-D2-L13 when meeting top-half teams, scoring only five goals.
Digging into the data, Lecce sit second-bottom of the Expected Points (xP) ratings, prop up the division for Expected Goals (xG) ratio and generate the second-lowest non-penalty xG (npxG) figure. If we look at the last eight Serie A dates, Lecce sit second-bottom of the xP rankings with Roma TOP and it’s a similar story over eight and 12-game splits.
Three successive draws have stalled Freiburg’s top-four challenge yet Julian Schuster’s side remain only three points shy of Champions League qualification as we turn for home. The unfashionable Black Forrest boys are proving a tough nut to crack for Bundesliga opponents with SCF consistently doing the business when facing bottom-half fodder.
Exclude the current top-five and Freiburg have racked up an impressive W12-D3-L3 across the Bundesliga campaign. At their Europa-Park Stadion base that record reads eight wins from nine with three goals or more plundered on six occasions. So the odds-against offering of 2.06 for Freiburg to enhance that return catches the eye against Union Berlin on Sunday.
Union have endured a difficult campaign, losing their identity at times and being drawn into an unexpected battle for survival. However, the capital club picked up four unlikely points before the break when winning away at Eintracht Frankfurt and holding Bayern Munich to give themselves some much needed breathing space away from the scrap.
Die Eisernen were a touch fortunate to earn four points from those fixtures having lost the cumulative Big Chance count 1-7, as well as the Expected Goals (xG) battle 1.58 to 3.56, whilst the visitors have also suffered eight defeats in 13 away days already this term, scoring just 12 goals in that sorry sample and so I’m happy to oppose the visitors here.
Freiburg sit fourth on Expected Points (xP) over the last eight rounds of action, with their only reverse in that run arriving narrowly against league leaders Bayern. Schuster’s crew have kept six clean sheets in their most recent seven showdowns and look well worth supporting at an appealing 2.06.
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