Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share his favourite fancies from the weekend with a pair of plays proposed from Serie A.
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In-demand Bologna boss Thiago Motta revealed he told his players he’s ‘proud’ to coach them and insists he’s happy at the Stadio Dall’Ara after masterminding an eye-catching 3-1 success over Roma at the Stadio Olimpico on Monday. The victory has brought Bologna to within touching distance of a first-ever qualification to the Champions League.
Motta said, “I told the guys I am proud to be their coach. They came on a difficult pitch and put in a high-level performance, both in attack and defence. This makes me really satisfied. The lads help each other, this is a key victory that boosts our confidence. They have fun together, and tonight they proved they’re on the right track. I am proud to coach them.”
Despite an eight-point cushion over sixth-placed Atalanta, I’m not expecting Motta and his squad to relent in their quest for a top-five finish. Bologna return to their fortress Stadio Dall’Ara base on Sunday and I’m again happy to support the Rossoblu here considering the hosts have tabled 12 triumphs in 15 when excluding the current top-two.
Remarkably, Bologna have shipped just five goals in that aforementioned 15-game sample on home soil, racking up 11 clean sheets in the process. I’ll be looking to back Bologna to win alongside Under 4.5 Goals when Udinese arrive, knowing these two teams have seen five or more goals scored in only four of their combined Serie A contests this season.
Udinese are only outside of the drop-zone on goal difference and arrive off the back of three defeats in their last four, including a crucial six-pointer against Hellas Verona last time out. The Zebrette have scored only 12 away goals all season, whilst only rock-bottom Salernitana have conjured up a lower Expected Goals (xG) output across the last 12 tussles.
Fiorentina chief Vincenzo Italiano admitted his Viola side exited the Coppa Italia at the semi-final stage in midweek with ‘big regrets’ over a costly red card and wasted first leg opportunities against Atalanta. Despite leading 1-0 from the first fixture in Florence, Fiorentina were eventually eliminated 4-2 on aggregate in Bergamo on Wednesday night.
Nikola Milenkovic’s sending off tipped the balance against La Viola to deny Italiano’s outfit a second successive final appearance. But Fiorentina are buoyed by the chance to reach another cup final with a Europa Conference semi-final showdown scheduled against Club Brugge from Thursday and the club have been very clear on their quest to progress.
But first, Fiorentina face Sassuolo on Sunday night in regular Serie A action. Previously, Italiano has shown a preference to rest and rotate his troops before and after important cup clashes and with both semi-finals the priority, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see the home side field a weakened side for the league encounter with Sassuolo.
I’m therefore happy to oppose Fiorentina at the prices. Sassuolo +0.50 Asian Handicap appeals – the Neroverdi are in desperate need of a positive result, starting the weekend two points adrift of safety with only five fixtures to play. The visitors have won just three Serie A matches since September, although one of those victories was against La Viola.
With Fiorentina’s attention elsewhere, their own league form has been far from formidable since the start of 2024 – the hosts have tabled only three triumphs in 14 Serie A outings this calendar year and they therefore look a little too highly-rated for this match-up considering their focus will be on Thursday night’s continental clash.
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