Football betting analyst Mark O’Haire returns to share a couple of his favourite fancies across the globe with a focus on the Bundesliga this weekend.
Saturday afternoon’s Bundesliga showdown in Lower Saxony should be fantastic fun to follow with the 1.95 available on Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score when Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen too generous to turndown. This contest is a game of the week contender from across the continent with goals very difficult to dismiss.
Wolfsburg’s 1-1 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend followed a familiar theme against top-half teams. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s side produced plenty of promising moments in forward areas and again looked fragile when put under pressure – Die Wolfe have now gotten on the scoresheet in all bar one of their Bundesliga outings this season.
Matches against the league’s elite have tended to be thrilling affairs. Wolfsburg lost 3-2 home and away against Bayern, were beaten 4-3 in the reverse clash against Leverkusen, whilst their other results against sides down as far as Dortmund in 11th read 1-1, 1-1, 5-1, 2-2, 4-3, 5-1, 2-4, 2-3, 1-3 – 11 of those 12 tussles went Over 2.5, with BTTS landing in all 12.
The average Expected Goals (xG) output of those 12 Wolfsburg matches comes in at 3.70 xG with almost seven Big Chances conjured up on a per-game basis. And it’s easy to envisage another eye-catching shootout when Leverkusen come to town – the defending champions have managed only 3/20 league clean sheets thus far, conceding in eight of nine away days.
But Bayer still pack a serious punch in the final-third themselves. Xabi Alonso’s troops come into this clash having tabled nine Bundesliga triumphs in their last 10, striking twice or more in all nine victories. Die Werkself have scored multiple goals in seven of nine away and are facing a Wolfsburg team with only four shutouts to their name across the campaign.
It’s therefore easy to support goals in this game – Both Teams To Score has a 16/20 (80%) and 17/20 (85%) hit-rate when these two teams are involved this season and so the opportunity to support goals at the advertised prices should not be missed.
Many Bundesliga pundits understandably expected Freiburg to regress this season following the summer departure of their legendary head coach Christian Streich. After 13 years in-charge of largely overachievement, 39-year-old Julian Schuster was promoted into the role with the majority of observes anticipating a season of struggle for the Black Forest club.
But Freiburg are nestled nicely in mid-table as we turn for home, thanks largely to their strong home record at Europa-Park Stadion (W6-D1-L2), as well as their ability to overcome the league’s lesser lights. One of their two home defeats against table-topping Bayern Munich, whilst Schuster’s side are W9-D3-L3 overall when excluding the top-four.
This weekend Freiburg welcome lowly Heidenheim to Europa-Park and the hosts are an attractive price to pick up maximum points. Heidenheim occupy the relegation play-off place having posted W2-D2-L14 across their last 18 Bundesliga outings – conceding 2.33 goals per-game – with the visitors suffering defeat in seven of 10 on their travels.
However, Heidenheim boast a remarkable ability to get on the scoresheet on the road. The strugglers have notched in eight of 10 road trips, striking twice or more on seven occasions. And so with Freiburg recording only two home clean sheets, and seeing the Freiburg win and Both Teams To Score bet land in 6/9 at Europa-Park thus far, a repeat looks plausible.
Backing Freiburg on the nose pays 1.77, though the inclusion of BTTS sees that price leap to 3.65 and that’s well worthy of an interest based on the numbers. Heidenheim scored twice and lost at Bayern, scored twice and lost at Leverkusen, scored twice at Mainz, scored twice and lost at Gladbach, drew 3-3 at Bremen, and also scored twice and lost and Dortmund.
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