Cheltenham Trends analyst Matt Tombs is back with his second article of 2025, which looks at previous Festival Races as Trials for Festival races…
It is often said that the best trials for the Festival are run at the previous Festival. There’s an obvious logic to that – the Festival attempts to bring the best horses together at their seasonal peak. The races should be different in nature to those during the rest of the season.
I therefore researched each Festival race as a trial for the next season’s Festival. Given that there was no Festival in 2001, the sample begins with the 2002 Festival as a trial for 2003.
The results are in the grid below, (not all the current 28 races existed in 2002, where they began later the years are indicated. For completeness I’ve left in the defunct Turners Novice Chase and also the National Hunt Chase even though it’ll be a very different race going forward).
The simplest factor is the strength of the ‘trial’. The weakest races are likely to produce few subsequent Festival winners, especially of other races. Of those that have been around since 2002 it’s no surprise to see the Kim Muir and Plate near the bottom of the list.
Effectively at the bottom is the Fred Winter, which has the disadvantage for these purposes of runners not being able to run in it again the following year. Whilst my normal instinct is that its form I’d be opposing, last season’s juveniles look a vintage crop and so this year I’m much more interested in it – that’s a theme I’m going to pick up in more detail next week once the handicap entries are out.
The flip side is the strength of the race the following year – if it’s much weaker than the trial then horses running in both races can develop a good record. An example features in the final grid below – the Ultima is stronger handicap than the Kim Muir. 4 horses dropping from the Ultima have won the Kim Muir the next year – that’s a trend worth having in mind when sifting through the Kim Muir entries next week.
The grid above shows the total number of winners each race produced the following the year, whether they won or lost the first year. As well as strong races that tend to produce lots of winners of various Festival races the next season – there are races that are a good trial for the same race the next season. The record is set out below, (the figure in brackets is the number of horses that did the double).
Unsurprisingly, this is in effect topped by specialist races such as the Hunter Chase, Champion Chase and Cross Country, (which only began in 2005).
Perhaps more surprising is that only 43% of these winners were doing the double, (and it only rises to just below 50% in the conditions races). In these races that have proved the best trials for the following year’s renewal you’re slightly more likely to find the winner from last year’s beaten horses – and you’ll typically get a much bigger price on them.
In the Hunter Chase Its On The Line is the current 4.5 ante-post favourite to go one better but 3rd Time Leader (currently 34.0) is another to consider. He looked like he might win between the last 2 but was steadied into the last, got it wrong and lost momentum.
The King Of Prs had been on the go a long time when not firing in the Grand Annual last year. He’ll be fresher this time and has been in good form this season. If he hasn’t shown his hand to the handicapper by winning the Dan & Joan Moore Memorial last time he could be a different proposition in this year’s Grand Annual.
There are also races that are a good trial for a specific different race the following year. This is set out in the grid below, (again the figure in brackets is the number of horses that won both races):
Given that these horses are running in 2 different contests, often over different obstacles you might expect the percentage that won both to be significantly lower – but at 41% it is only marginally lower.
This grid highlights some trends you might expect. 2m chasing is the most specialist division in races over conventional obstacles so it’s unsurprising the Arkle -> Champion Chase record, (especially for Arkle winners,) is so strong.
It’s noteworthy that of those 7 Arkle winners that followed up in the next Champion Chase, only Sprinter Sacre had already won an Open Grade 1 during their Champion Chase winning season. 5 of the other 6 had tried and failed.
Gaelic Warrior has been disappointing behind Solness in 2 Grade 1s at Leopardstown on a sound surface but if the going was testing again at Cheltenham, (6 of the last 7 Champion Chases have been run on officially soft ground,) he could be a different proposition, if that’s his target.
In 7 of those 12 race combinations horses were jumping obstacles that they weren’t jumping the first year. They are typically:
And illustrate that plenty of horses adapt well between the different national hunt disciplines. Other than in the specialist division of 2m chasing, it has proved harder for the best novices to transition successfully into the Open Grade 1s.
Whilst the Bumper is often described as a stamina test, it should be noted that the novice hurdle winners it’s produced were split: Supreme (5), Baring Bingham (4) & Albert Bartlett (1). In the shorter term the best horses from it tend to have plenty of speed.
Romeo Coolio looked the one to take out of the Bumper at the time and looks a leading player in the Supreme. Equally, there must be a significant doubt about Jasmin De Vaux staying the Albert Bartlett trip – he looks to be running there because his jumping has been poor rather than because he has the required stamina.
A 2m5f novice hurdle ought to be a breeding ground for stayers but it’s well trodden ground now that the Baring Bingham is usually a test of speed at the 2m5f trip. The 20 winners it’s produced reflect that by being split by approximate distance:
Ballyburn is bred to relish the 3m½f trip of the Broadway but is a keen going type and he tends to land without momentum after jumping his fences, so may be one to take on at a short price. Nicky Henderson’s horses were under the weather when Jingko Blue was pulled up last year but he’s taken well to fences and he is an interesting long shot in the Broadway.
If I were picking one race from the Festival to follow generally the following season it would be the Albert Bartlett, which is mistakenly deemed by many the weakest of the 3 novice hurdle Grade 1s.
The grids above show how strong a guide it is to the next season’s Festival but it’s also a good long term Gold Cup guide. First run in 2005, it effectively has been able to throw up Gold Cup contenders since 2007. It’s produced 3 winners, (as many as the Supreme & Baring Bingham combined in that period,) in Bobs Worth, Native River & Minella Indo.
Of the 2023 Albert Bartlett runners, Monty’s Star and Corbetts Cross both have chances in what’s a wide-open Gold Cup behind the champion Galopin Des Champs.
Of the 2024 Albert Bartlett runners, Stellar Story, Dancing City and Lecky Watson all look contenders for the Broadway, whilst High Class Hero and Search For Glory wouldn’t be no-hopers if lining up.
The previous year’s Albert Bartlett has produced at least 1 winner at the last 7 Festivals, (the next longest streak is 3 – the Champion Hurdle & Baring Bingham). If you are looking for one race from last year’s Festival to re-watch and focus on when doing your prep I’d make it the Albert Bartlett.
