Cheltenham Trends analyst Matt Tombs is back with his third article of 2025, which looks at the record of 5-year-olds in Festival handicaps…
Last week, I looked at different Festival races in terms of how good or bad a trial they were for the following season’s Festival.
The Fred Winter is effectively the worst race at the meeting for producing winners at the next Festival, (2 so far.) Of the Grade 1s the Triumph is joint lowest with the Broadway, (8 this century), when calculated as a proportion of the number of renewals.
It’s well documented that juveniles often find it tough the following season more generally and the vast majority of punters are well aware that 5-y-o have a bad record in the Champion Hurdle, (only Katchit and Espoir D’Allen have won since See You Then).
Most also know the record in the Stayers Hurdle is even worse – no 5-y-o has won since it was re-introduced in 1972.
Some will also know that having been 4/26 (46% profit) in the Arkle between 1998–2007, when they received a weight-for-age allowance of between 4-8lb – 5-y-o are 0/11 since it was abolished.
One good betting angle is to look for a trend that is well known and tends to be factored into the market – where there is a reason why it is unlikely to be substantiated this year.
I want to look at 5-y-o at this year’s Festival. The reason is that last season’s juveniles look an unusually, perhaps unprecedentedly, strong crop. For example:
It seems likely that some of last season’s juveniles won’t yet have exploited marks that were based on a ‘typical’ assessment of juvenile form last spring. Given that historically juveniles have struggled the following season, I’m hopeful that some of them may be underestimated in the Festival handicaps this year.
So if we’ve got some potentially well handicapped 5-y-o, which handicaps does history suggest we should focus on? As you’d expect it’s handicap hurdles given that, (unless they began in France,) 5-y-o would be in their first season over fences so relatively few have run.
The number of 5-y-o winners this century of each of the Festival handicaps is set out in the grid below, (ignoring the Cross Country of those handicaps run previously that 5-y-o are eligible to run in).
NB – there have been 16 renewals of the Martin Pipe, compared to 24 of those, such as the County, that have been run at every Festival this century. Proportionally the Pipe reading is 7.5.
If we’re looking at 5-y-o it’s the:
that history suggests we should be focusing on.
When comparing the 2 intermediate trip handicap hurdles, the context is that there is no Open Grade 1 hurdle at the intermediate trip. The Coral Cup often attracts high-class hurdlers and that makes it harder for the younger, less exposed horses. With a 145 rating ceiling, those high-class non-novices can’t run in the Martin Pipe so the younger, less exposed horses – including 5-y-o – thrive.
I’m open-minded but I think the right way to approach exploiting the potential blots on the handicap amongst last season’s juveniles is to start with the County – then the Pipe – then the Coral Cup – then the other handicaps.
As my theory is that last season’s juvenile form is unusually strong, I want to focus on those who got handicapped in those juvenile races.
A 5-y-o who only started racing this season over hurdles and has been handicapped on form against older horses is no more likely to benefit from that strong juvenile cohort than a 6-y-o. For completeness, if you only included horses that had run as juveniles in the British Isles, (and so got handicapped at least in part on that basis,) the number-of-winners list becomes:
The other angle to consider is trainers – which trainers do and don’t win Festival handicaps with horses that were running in juveniles in the British Isles the previous season?
Of the 23 5-y-o winners, both Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls have trained 6 each, with Gordon Elliott (2) the only other trainer to have more than 1.
However, when you restrict that to only include the 14 that ran in juvenile races in the British Isles that season those numbers drop to Nicholls (4), Mullins (2) & Elliott (1).
If we reduce it further by only including those that would still be eligible under the new rules where runners in the:
that knocks the 2 Mullins runners out, leaving 12.
So whilst there are some historic clues regarding trainers, I’m open-minded about which yards are likely to be best placed to exploit their 5-y-o being well handicapped at this year’s Festival.
The weights are out next week and these days markets move on the day they are published. It’s therefore important to prepare a shortlist of horses you are interested in when the entries come out. With the Irish horses I think about what would be the ‘neutral’ ratings adjustment. Then when the actual weights come out I can be ready to place bets on Irish horses I like, who haven’t been raised materially more than I expected.
With that in mind, which of the 5-y-o entries make most appeal?
The first is Lark In The Mornin in the County. He won the Fred Winter last year off 122 despite connections thinking the heavy ground was completely against him. He’s apparently not been easy to keep right, which may have been a blessing in disguise for this year’s Festival as he’s only run twice since.
The first was when 16½l 5th in the Swinton off 130 and the second was when 9½l 7th at Leopardstown at Christmas off the same mark. The Haydock run should have helped cement his position in the British handicap so he should be around that mark when the weights come out. His hold up style is ideally suited to the County.
No horses were balloted out of the County last year but the cut was 133 in 2023 and 134 in 2022. Assuming he’s given around 130 he’s therefore not certain to get a run but with only the Fred Winter, Pertemps & Kim Muir being oversubscribed last year, (and neither the Pertemps nor the Kim Muir were the year before,) it may be that we’re now in an era where any horse that wants a run gets one in most of the handicaps.
Only once since 2007 would 130 not have been in the handicap proper, (ignoring whether 130 made the cut). Without prejudging how the BHA handicapper will assess the Irish horses Lark In The Mornin looks likely to be able to run off his correct mark if he gets in. Its weather watch for him but if we could assume a sound surface I’d have Lark In The Mornin the most likely winner of the County at this stage.
In the same race Ethical Dimaond in interesting. In the autumn of last season the vibes were that Willie thought him his best juvenile. He was too keen though and has worn a hood for both hurdles start this season.
He’s looked very much a work in progress but the penny seems to be dropping. Having previously been held up over hurdles he did make all to win his maiden last time, (settled a bit better,) but now he’s jumping better he looks like it might suit him to be buried in a big field. He has an Irish mark of 137 and is another for the shortlist in the County. Both Lark In The Mornin and Ethical Dimaond are only entered in the County.
The third is the unbeaten hurdler Wodhooh. She made it 6/6 over hurdles when winning a slowly run mares handicap at Cheltenham’s December meeting off 130.
She got an excellent ride from crack conditional Danny Gilligan there to beat Joyeuse by 1¾l. It’s well known that that form has been hugely boosted:
What was noteworthy was that Nicky Henderson said afterwards that even with a more strongly run race or a more aggressive ride he didn’t think Joyeuse could have beaten Wodhooh. Perhaps that was said in the context that Joyeuse’s real target was Newbury but it might be that he thought Wodhooh was even better handicapped than Joyeuse.
Wodhooh had a mark of 138 in Britain and if she were to get that next week she’d look the one to beat in the Martin Pipe as Danny Gilligan could ride which is a huge advantage, (she’s also in the Coral Cup). However, I’d expect a significant collateral rise so we need to wait and see what mark she gets.
It’s not only the Irish 5-y-o that are worth keeping an eye out for. Kabral Du Mathan has been running really well this season when the Paul Nicholls yard hasn’t been flying. He won off 123 and was then chinned off 131 by Fiercely Proud in the premier handicap at Ascot just before Christmas, the pair 17l clear. On his most recent start he was 2l 2nd to Secret Squirrel in another valuable handicap at Windsor off 139. He’s still on the mark and if he’s held up, as he was at Windsor, the County should suit him much better.
