I would absolutely love to see Oisin Murphy steer Telecaster to Derby glory, and it would be no more than the brilliant young rider deserves, but he will need to prove himself the equal Lester Piggott and Kieren Fallon to do so, as those are the only jockeys to have won the Derby from stall one or two since 1969.
The Diomed is a potentially messy race, but that’s not enough reason to make Bye Bye Hong Kong as short as he is. He was ridden well to beat Oh This Is Us at Windsor last time, but not only is the runner-up weighted to turn the tables, but it’s unlikely the other jockeys will allow Silvestre de Sousa to pinch this race the way he tried to last time.
It’s debatable whether that win over a trio who were compromised by the steady gallop is worth the rating it’s been given, and he faces a very stiff task against older horses here, and all twelve three-year-olds to run in this in the past 20 years have been beaten.
The Dash is one of the roughest races in the calendar, and the key is to stay out of trouble, and favourite Hathiq is well drawn in theory, he will find plenty of others converging on the rail near where he’s drawn and this will be a culture shock compared to the races he’s won easily from lesser rivals at Tipperary and the Curragh. He’s clearly worth his new mark on that basis, but things will be happening a lot more quickly at this track, the fastest five furlongs in the world, than it has been of late, and that might well catch him out.
He’s beaten rivals rated 76 and 79 on his last two starts, but he has the likes of 114-rated Caspian Prince to deal with now. If he misses a beat in the first furlong, he will struggle to regain his equilibrium, and he’s recommended as a place lay given how many things can go wrong.
I’ve said before that punting calls for you to be hard-hearted, and you should often bet against what you want to see if the odds dictate. I would absolutely love to see Oisin Murphy steer Telecaster to Derby glory, and it would be no more than the brilliant young rider deserves, but he will need to prove himself the equal Lester Piggott and Kieren Fallon to do so, as those are the only jockeys to have won the Derby from stall one or two since 1969.
Victory would put horse and jockey among the greats, but hard logic says that the catalogue of possible setbacks which could prevent victory means he must be opposed and I expect to be heavy of heart, but heavier in the wallet if they fail.
Tom Stanley is joined by Sam Turner, attheraces.com Declan Rix and Matchbook’s Micheal Deasy to preview the Derby, the Epsom Dash and give their best bets for Saturdays racing.
