Adam Chernoff: The 10-10-10 Rule - NFL Week Seven

7 min

Before I make a bet, I ask myself three questions.

How will I feel about this bet in ten hours?

How will I feel about this bet in ten days?

How will I feel about this bet in ten weeks?

I call this the “10-10-10 Rule”. It is a way I encourage myself to think long-term and it helps me a ton.

I am very passionate about my opinions. I tend to make snap decisions and stick to them at all costs. By holding myself accountable to the 10-10-10 rule, I make fewer impulse bets.

This week is a good example.

I was watching my odds screen Sunday night and made a snap decision in three games. Dallas -6, Green Bay +6 and New York +5 1/2.

I opened my sportsbook, queued up the bets and was ready to click submit. But, I stopped myself and stepped back.

I know I would feel regret after ten hours with each bet.

A backup QB with three missing linemen in Green Bay. No thank you.

Fading Seattle, a team I feel is the best in the NFC and backing the Giants off a big primetime win with a ton of market support. I’ll pass.

Laying points on the road with the Cowboys, the team getting the most market support and dodging a week of distractions via legal implications to their star running back. Yikes.

After ten days, I would feel angry with any of those three losses.

After ten weeks, I would be looking back on the season kicking myself because I know that I know better than to make those bets.

I turned off my odds screen and went to bed. It was not until early Thursday morning that I settled on Indianapolis as my one bet this week.

Ten hours later: I feel excellent. I got a ton of attention on my bet, much of it questioning my sanity backing Indianapolis. I do not go out of my way to make a wager that goes against the grain. However, when my research points me to a team that goes against the significant market support, I do not complain.

Ten days later: This won’t be realised until next week, but I expect to be very pleased.

This game presents a unique market spot where the perception of the teams is so different that handicapping is forced.

Very few bettors can handicap this game without bias. The Jacksonville defense is the catalyst for that. Jacoby Brissett looked very poor against a weak pass rush on Monday night. The Jaguars lead the league in pressures and sacks.

I feel the fact that Jacksonville is incapable of playing from behind to be the major factor in this game. The Jaguars have failed to score the first touchdown three times this season. It is not a coincidence they have lost all three.

Jacksonville does well with a lead because it allows them to hide their biggest weakness – Blake Bortles. In their three victories, Bortles has attempted just sixteen passes in the second half.

Leonard Fournette is the only offensive player for Jacksonville with an above average grade through six weeks. He is the main driving force in the offense. This week he will play but will do so at less than 100%. Indianapolis has been one of the best first-half teams in the first six weeks of the season. If the Colts can get ahead early, Pagano does not have to adjust at halftime, and the Jaguars will not be able to catch up.

Ten weeks later: I hope to feel proud. Before the season I predicted record profits for Nevada bookmakers due to market chaos. This bet is a poster child for my theory.

I believe that the NFL market this season is unlike any other with the dead set perception on the top and bottom part of the league. I do not think anybody can accurately price the 20-23 teams stuck in the middle.

Opposing significant market support backing mediocrity has proven to be very profitable this season. With overreaction and recency bias enhancing market support in this game featuring two very mediocre teams, going with the home underdog is an easy decision for me.

The Colts get ahead early, stay consistent and win outright.


Colts to beat the Jags (Moneyline)

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