Adam Chernoff: Market Fades - NFL Week 9

8 min

I made a big life change.

One week ago, I left my job as night manager at the casino and moved to Vancouver, Canada. I took a corporate job with a publicly traded Poker and Gaming company.

For one year, I busted my ass off for eight to ten hours a night running the casino floor. The job was mad, there was no break. It was my first regulated job, and after five years of bookmaking, I guess I thought the relentless pace was normal.

I had a wake up call this morning. I showed up to work at 8:30am – a half hour before open – and started to research automated gaming tables made by our competitors and search for an edge in our product.

Ten minutes in I stopped.

I stood up and took a look around.

There was nobody. The office was empty.

It hit me. For the first time in a long time, I am not being watched by cameras, adhering to strict gaming regulations or being observed by security.

There is no pressure.

It is a bloody odd feeling.

I walked to the staff fridge and grabbed a free bottle of orange juice and sat back down at my desk.

Is this the corporate work life everybody talks about…?

Two bets for me on Sunday.

The first is Tampa Bay.

The Buccaneers and Saints are complete opposites in market perception. The Saints have won and covered five games in a row and the Buccaneers have failed to cover a game since week one.

The support in the market for New Orleans is extremely high because they are such a public team. They score the second most points per game and bettors love that. The market support has compounded over the win streak, but, for the first time against Chicago last Sunday, there was resistance.

I believe the price in this game is too high and too inflated. Influential money agrees with me. The price has dropped down off the key number of 7 to 6 1/2. Time stamps and market history indicate that high limit, low margin books moved first. A telling sign when searching for influential moves.

Quarterback Jameis Winston returns for Tampa Bay making the most pass heavy offence in the league whole again. The big advantage of the game could come from three returning Tampa Bay defensive players. Both starting tackles on the New Orleans offensive line are banged up and Brees struggles under pressure are well documented this season (46.1 passer rating).

I will go against the support and take the 7 points on a very inflated number.

My second bet is Miami.

One of my favourite spots in betting is backing a team after they have their head coach fired. Rarely does the market account for the boost of motivation that comes from a fresh start. Backing a pissed off coach – especially a very good one – can be equally as enticing.

Adam Gase is a great football coach. But he and the Miami Dolphins were thrust into a tough position this season. They did not get to play their first home game until Week 5 and had to go across the country and across the ocean to London in-between.

Dysfunction was imminent every step of the way and the harsh schedule brought the team to a boiling point last week when Miami was blown out 40–0 in Baltimore.

Gase’s reputation is a great offensive mind. For his team to get shut out and rank near last in the league in every category halfway through the season is embarrassing for him. He spoke his mind in the press conference after the Baltimore game, and did not hold back. He sent everyone home for three days for an impromptu bye week and then shook up the league on Tuesday shipping off Jay Ajayi for a draft pick.

This was a big message to everybody on the team. Even at 4–3 on the season, Gase let the team know that anyone is replaceable.

Sunday night, is a fresh start. Many bettors believe the Dolphins are punting on the season. I believe the opposite. Gase led the team to a six game winning streak last season after a 1–4 start. This game on Sunday is the turning point and I expect to see Miami answer his message loud and clear.

Jay Cutler returns as does star wide receiver Davante Parker. Both Miami receivers Parker and Stills have very favourable matchups against Raiders corners Dexter McDonald and Sean Smith. Quarterbacks throwing against the two Oakland corners have a passer rating of 121.4 – an unimaginably high number.

Under the leadership of Adam Gase, the Dolphins have won all four of their home games after a loss – outright and cover. With the entire team playing for their jobs, I expect a very motivated effort on Sunday night from Miami. I will take the points.

Week 9 Bets

  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7
  • Miami Dolphins +3

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