Adam Chernoff - Poor Bookmaker Pricing

5 min

Living in Vancouver gives me the opportunity to walk to work each morning. It is a treat walking outside my house and being greeted with temperatures above freezing instead of -25 or colder like back in the prairies.

The walk along the inlet of the Pacific Ocean seawall is breathtaking. It makes me smile every morning. Growing up in Saskatchewan, nobody told me this exists in Canada. I guess the intent is not to disappoint children when winter comes.

The walk each morning gives me time not just to think, but also to learn. I have started listening to many podcasts.

This morning I finished an interview with Ray Dalio.

Ray spoke about his bold prediction on international banks that went wrong in the 1980’s. It nearly cost him his entire business, but, he said it was the best thing that ever happened to him. Being so wrong gave him the humility to balance with his audacity. It gave him the fear of being wrong which allowed him to have an openmindedness.

Balancing humility and audacity is something I think about a lot. In betting, it is challenging not to get lost in the highs and lows.

From a content creation standpoint, I put myself in the public eye each week in my writing. I often try to persuade myself to back a side to make a point. The natural emotion creates a lot of conflict in handicapping.

I loved, loved, loved Tennessee before the season started. I have not bet on or against them in any game except for their appearance on Monday Night Football in October. I have been watching them from the sidelines hoping they would sometime validate my personal opinion. I have been disappointed, though. Despite being on top of the AFC South division, I am not sure there has ever been a team that I was big on that inspires less confidence than Tennessee. This week is the end of it for me.

The Titans defense is brutal. The secondary has no spine and is as passive as any unit in the league. Every week I watch the team miss tackles and blow assignments, yet, they manage to muster wins and covers.

Entering Week 14, Tennessee sits 2.41 wins above their expected total – no team has overachieved more this season.

What makes this even more interesting is the fact that the overachievement has come against the third easiest compounding schedule.

As is the case with many of my bets, I like opposing overachieving teams receiving higher than usual market support. After back to back covers, the Titans are one of the three most bet sides on the card this week.

I think the price is wrong and Arizona should be at worst a pick em.

Arizona quietly has the fourth most efficient defense in the league and earn it through balance. The Cardinals hold opponents to 91% of their average rush and 96% of their average pass.

I love the coaching matchup in this game. Bruce Arians has a significant advantage over Mike Mularkey. I have little doubt he can follow a simple game plan and have success moving the ball.

As good as the plus money return on the money line is, I will not turn down free points on a weak price set by bookmakers.

Arizona Cardinals +3