Adam Chernoff: NFL Week 17 - Too Simple To Screw Up

5 min

I do not apologise for losing. It is part of gambling, and it happens, often. What I do apologise for is a lack of self-awareness.

People who follow me will know that a few times a year I post something that does not look or sound like me – and they stay away. Case and point last week. I received many messages immediately after publishing questioning my three bets. Sure enough, I went 0-3.

It does not bother me that I lost each bet. I can not avoid that from happening. What does bother the living hell out of me is that I got away from being myself.

I do not know why this happens. I wish I could avoid it at all costs.

My new year’s resolution for 2018 is to simplify everything, slow down and be more focused. Everyone reading this deserves better. I am confident this week I am back in the right mindset in backing the Tennessee Titans.

It is difficult to bet Tennessee because of Mike Mularkey. This week, the head coach catches a break and gets a matchup, not even he can screw up.

Mularkey likes to run the ball any chance he gets. It is ideal for him that the Jacksonville defense is abysmal at stopping the rush. This season they are allowing opponents to gain 115% of their average gain on the ground.

The DeMarco Murray injury simplifies this game a step further for Mularkey. Derrick Henry – the much better running back – now becomes the full time back. Henry ranks seventh in elusive rating and gaining 3.5 yards per carry after contact and has a very high 38% explosive run percentage.

This game is a rare occasion where the stubbornness of Mike Mularkey will result in success.

The betting market is interesting to me, and I believe validates my opinion. Bettors love motivational angles. The problem is that emotion does not equate to price.

The Titans opened as six-point favourites now sit at three (plus money). The driving force behind the move was a comment from Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone saying he is playing this game as any regular week. The issue I have with the line move is that even at Tennessee -3, the line is off…by a ton. The fact that bookmakers chose to open it higher tells a big story.

No matter if the Jaguars win or lose, they are guaranteed the three spot. Jacksonville is not going to come out and show anything ahead of a rematch next week with the Titans in the Wildcard Round. The starting names might be on the field, but the Jaguars game plan will be as simplistic and passive as any all season.

Some may even argue that Jacksonville wants Tennessee to win this week to avoid playing a much better LA Chargers team.

A bet on Tennessee this week is a bet on a team with a significant matchup advantage at a skill position on the field, a coach with a game plan he can not screw up against an opponent that will have basic schemes more focused on their home playoff rematch next weekend.

Money continues to pour in on Jacksvonille making them the most prominent public dog of the week. I will side with Tennessee -3 at plus money.

Adam’s Week 17 Bet:

  • Titans -3