Brad is back with three more bets for Week 6 of the NFL season including a potential upset in Minnesota.
2-2 last week to pick up 0.72 units and take us to +2.49 units for the season. Slow and steady, I’m told, winneth the race.
We were hard done by on the Steelers/Ravens under, which was bet down and saw the teams generate around 550 yards total, but there were plenty of short fields off turnovers, so we done our dough. I also didn’t include the Niners in the P/L but I tweeted that out with the column, so hopefully, some of you jumped aboard as well.
Onto Week 6 and some more fun and games.
London’s Calling Early Sunday
Let’s start with the London game since most of us degenerates will be betting on it anyway.
I want to oppose the Panthers offense here.
Lest we forget, Kyle Allen was not drafted and we should take his success with a pinch of salt.
His QBR by start is:
This is a somewhat concerning trend, especially combined with his proclivity for fumbling.
Of course, Christian McCaffery is the engine of this offense but he goes against a Bucs run defense which has held opposing RBs to 2.71 YPC this year and held CMC to 53 scoreless yards on 18 touches in Week 2.
I also think this Bucs offense can be opposed.
The right side of the offensive line will likely be entirely new following injuries last week to Demar Dotson and Alex Cappa . the Panthers look like the sort of team to take advantage of that too – they rank fourth in the NFL in sacks per pass play, and second in the NFL in adjusted net yards per pass allowed, when adjusting for opponent.
Finally, its historically been profitable to back unders when divisional teams play each other the second time in the same season as the familiarity seems to favour the defense.
Kirk Cousins, Flat-Track Bully
Next up we’re having a chunkier bet on the Eagles +3 in Minnesota.
Season-to-date stats don’t necessarily support this play but I think the Eagles are underrated by their stats thanks to drops and injuries (the two are definitely related). A PFF’s Timo Riske put it: “It’s very rare that a high-performing QB is as unlucky as Wentz this year. His receivers dropped 15 passes in 5 games. Yet he leads the 14th best pass offense after 5 weeks as the second-best graded QB.”
On the opposing sideline, Cousins on the has been pretty crap.
He has six turnover-worthy throws this season but only two have turned into INTs. His PFF rating is in the 60’s compared to Wentz in the 90’s and Cousins has shown himself to be something of a flat-track bully. As far as I can tell he is 5-25 in his career against winning teams.
The Eagles were Superbowl contenders before the season started and rated way ahead of the Vikings – I don’t think we’ve seen enough to change those ratings here, especially with the coaching mismatch in our favour too.
Give Me The Lions Over The Cheese Heads
Finally, I’ll have some Lions +4.5 over the Green Bay Packers.
I am a huge fan of what the Lions are doing with Stafford and Darell Bevell this season (apart from running the ball too often). Stafford is tops in the NFL with an average depth of target of 12.6 yards.
Deep passes are traditionally the most efficient way to move the ball in the NFL, and Stafford is seeing the benefits, passing for 8 yards per attempt. In fact, the Lions have a better passing success rate (49% to 43%) and yards per attempt including sacks (7.2 to 6.4).
These defences are broadly even by DVOA, so in my view, we have the better offense with extra rest getting 4.5 points.
Easy money (probably)!
- Bucs/Panthers under 47.5 – 1 unit @ 1.98
- Eagles +3 – 2 units @ 2.0
- Lions +4.5 1.5 units @ 1.92