Fresh from another winning weekend on the continent, Mark O’Haire turns his attention to the eternal city of Rome on Sunday afternoon!
Roma are the epitome of a flat-track bully and I’m counting on the Giallorossi enhancing their record against Serie A’s lesser lights this weekend.
The capital club are available at 1.91 with a -0.75 Asian Handicap hurdle, an appealing price and line knowing we’ll profit should Paulo Fonseca’s charges take top honours against mid-table Bologna.
Roma went off at 1.67 when welcoming Verona recently, a team I’d class as one of the best of the rest outside of Italy’s obvious leading candidates, so there’s wiggle room in the 1×2 here with the home side 1.71 coming into the weekend.
My numbers make a Giallorossi success closer to 1.6 and I expect the available price to contract before kick-off.
As suggested, this is where Fonseca’s team come alive and produce their best work.
Roma have not managed to turn over any of their top-seven rivals this term, however, the hosts have posted 15 victories from 20 encounters against the rest of the division, including an impressive 13 wins from 15 against bottom-half dwellers.
At their Stadio Olimpico base, Roma have returned W10-D1-L0 when taking on teams below them in the Serie A standings, averaging 2.55 goals per game. The Giallorossi also rank third for non-penalty expected goals (npxG) and have positive team news, suggesting a strong side will be fielded as the home team chase vital European qualification positions.
In contrast, Bologna have been beaten in all five trips to the top-seven by an aggregate 3-12, have suffered eight defeats in 15 road trips and have lost nine of 11 against top-seven teams overall.
The Rossoblu were hammered 5-1 in the reverse meeting and have also shipped 1.50 XG on average this season, highlighting their defensive flaws.
Sure, Sinisa Mihajlovic is unlikely to allow his Bologna boys to coast until the campaign’s conclusion but even so, there’s a possibility the visitors could already be ‘on the beach’ with safety secured and continental competition out of reach. Any such complacency is unlikely to go unpunished at the Olimpico.
Recommended Bet – Roma -0.5/1.0 – 2 units @ 1.91
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