This week: Copa Del Rey, Championship and Serie A
Mark O’Haire, Mark Stinchcombe and Ian Broadrick join Aidan “Sully” O’Sullivan and Emmet Kennedy to discuss the weekend’s football and why Mark O’Haire is hiding in a closet like R Kelly. But mostly they find some value bets from around the world.
Brodders likes Juventus in a huge game for both sides where he thinks being able to back them at odds-against is major value for a team that don’t lose often at home and have a good record against Napoli.
“Napoli come into the match in pretty average form and they are starting to run out steam a bit and they are a side that is looking a bit vulnerable at the moment. Juventus, on the other hand, are absolutely awesome.”
Listen to the full reasoning and a tip for how to adjust your stakes at the end of the season here and why he’s not taking his own advice.
The bet: Juventus to win
Listen:
The Copa Del Rey final takes place on the weekend and the lads are shocked to find rugby man Sully knows where it’s being played but nobody is looking past Barca here. Mark O’Haire feels this is every chance of a goal-fest and he’s looking at the totals line here.
“The Copa hasn’t often been a cagey affair and goals have often followed, and Barcelona have a habit of sweeping Sevilla aside. I’ve been a bit negative towards them before and I can’t get away from their defence especially against the top teams in La Liga.”
The bet: Over 2.75 goals
Wolves have won promotion and as such their odds have gone flying out for this game due to a perceived lack of motivation, but Mark Stinchcombe is having none of it.
“The price has moved massively too far against Wolves and although they only need a point to win the league I can’t believe they are going to play any other way than they have done all season.”
Listen to the full discussion of the price differentials, the value of taking a more conservative line with the bets and a question about how you can factor in the possibility they’ve been on the beers all week.
The bet: Wolves to win
After Brodders raises the idea of adjusting stakes at the end of the season, based on something he’s read from a very experienced pro bettor, the lads take up the discussion throughout the pod.
This week: European Champions Cup Rugby
Aidan “Sully” O’Sullivan and Emmett Kennedy chat about the weekend’s big semi-final action where hot favourites Leinster take on Scarlets and Munster head over to Racing in a bid to make it an all Irish final.
The first game is an epic clash between the best of Ireland (sorry Sully) and the best of Wales as Leinster take on the Scarlets at the Aviva Stadium. The markets have this priced up with Leinster as a double-digit favourite but Sully isn’t so sure that’s the right line.
“The line opened up at +13 at one bookmaker and I had that a full five points lower and even with +11.5 you are still getting four points of value. I think this is a one-score game. It’s a lot of points to cover in a European cup semi final and the Scarlets are a good team.”
To hear Sully’s full reasoning including the potentially huge impact of scrum-half Luke Mcgrath, why the odds compilers may have set a line that’s “wrong” and why you should always look to come up with your own lines to grab the early value here.
The bet: Scarlets +11.5
Listen:
Sully is off to France for the game, and while he makes a strong case for his home club the ultimate decision is no bet. Perhaps guided by a less than stellar record as an away fan to France to support them. Can he be lucky this week?
“There won’t be home advantage here for Paris-based Racing in Bordeaux and Munster are on the back of a good away trip with a good amount of rest. They have the players and won’t panic and if I had to pick a side I’d take Munster +4.5”
But the ultimate decision is to leave this one alone and Sully covers every angle on this one. Listen to what he thinks here
For a discussion of the psychology of betting against your own team check out Sully and Emmet’s chat here, where Sully admits to backing against both Munster and Ireland a few times in the past. No shame in that one…
Rory Delargy and Stephen Harris run through the cards for the big Saturday races including picking out some potential value place lays in the Champion Hurdle and some cunning in-running bets for the Scottish Grand National as well as some more value bets and lays.
Stephen Harris is not keen on Beyond the Clouds who he thinks has been given a very stiff mark and reverts to type with a tip on Flying Tiger at a big price who has question marks over him but has the potential to perform. But he likes the look of Verdana Blue.
“Verdana Blue really needs a speed track and good ground and he’s got it for the first time in a few starts. He’s been laid out for the race and he’s pretty fresh for the time of year.” You can hear the full reasoning here.
Delargy also thinks there is some value in Flying Tiger, although he has some doubts, but flags him up as a trading opportunity and look to lay the stake back in-running. Harris also mentions laying Beyond the Clouds for a place as a runner who might bomb out altogether. But his main pick is one of the favourites.
“There is no reason you have to look away from the blindingly obvious and the handicapper has given Chesterfield a real chance here. You’d be daft to try and find reasons he couldn’t win.”
Listen to Delargy’s views here.
Delargy would happily lay Vincente a place in the big one, with some serious concerns over his jumping. And is a lot keener on Doing Fine although he’s a bit concerned with him being a hold-up horse who will need a clear run. You can hear the full discussion here. One other for the shortlist though is Henri Parry Morgan.
“He absolutely bolted up at the West Wales National, he jumped very well and won with a fair bit to spare. He doesn’t need soft ground, although he wouldn’t want it lightning fast and his trainer has won this race before and he’s one of those who comes into form when the sun comes out.”
Harris agrees on Vincente who he calls a typical “lazy Saturday horse” and he doesn’t fancy him at all at the prices. And the other one he doesn’t like in this race is Vintage Clouds who he says will not perform well on the ground and he’s happy to take on for a place.
He does like Doing Fine, who he notes had a “strange” ride at Sandown who he thinks is sure to go well. Harris also mentions Fagan as both a potential bet and a clear in-running opportunity, which you can hear more about here.
