13:20 Prix Marcel Boussac
There is a strong favourite here in the shape of Rocques, but the biggest argument in her favour is based on her win in the C&D Prix D’Aumale last time. That seems to make sense, but if that Group 3 was such a good guide to this race, how come the last filly to complete the double was Mary Linoa back in 1988?
Rocques certainly has a solid chance given her 3-3 record, but I thought there was very little to choose between the leading contenders, and Fabrice Chappet’s filly has the look of one who will be overbet by default.
Recommended: Lay Rocques @ 2.7 or shorter (liability 3.4pts)
15:05 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe
The Arc does have a habit of throwing up unconsidered winners, but it’s hardly a graveyard for fancied horses, and Enable is much more of a play than a lay at current odds. The going is now liable to be a bit softer than anticipated after watering and with rain predicted, that merely strengthens her claims.
Given she’s now firmly odds against, I am going to get off the fence and back her, as those who looked her main dangers have not been helped by the draw in comparison.
I think there could be value to be had in the place market, however, and if the high-drawn runners are given every chance to beat Enable rather that ridden for a place, that could see outsiders picking up the pieces. Cloth Of Stars has no hope of winning on this year’s form, but that was true a year ago when he ran into the frame at juicy odds, and he will be an even bigger price after finishing third behind Waldgeist in the Prix Foy.
I’m happy to treat that race as the trial it is rather than an absolute form guide, and I think both he and fifth-placed Capri can step up.
Capri’s St Leger win last year was a tremendous effort which left him empty when running in this race subsequently, but he could be a very different horse this time around, arriving freshest of all after a tune-up in the Foy which didn’t get near the bottom of him.
Recommended Arc Bets
- Back Enable to win @ 2.3 or bigger (3pts)
- Back Cloth of Stars to place @ 8.0 or bigger (1pt)
- Back Capri to place @ 4.8 or bigger (2pts)